Energy Research

        The Communications Institute and the Thomas R. Brown Foundations launched a joint study, Powering Arizona: Choices & Trade-Offs For Electricity Policy, with scholars from Arizona State University and Pennsylvania State University to examine the future of Arizona’s electricity supply. The study reviewed the feasibility of traditional and non-traditional energy sources in Arizona, their costs and benefits, and provided an analysis of the state’s electricity use in both the short and long-term.



        Powering Arizona also compared energy sources from economic, technological, and environmental perspectives, and is based on existing energy literature, not original research. Additionally, the effort included an energy symposium in June 2008 that presented preliminary findings and provide an opportunity for comments by policy makers, regulators, industry, and others interested in Arizona's energy future. The final study is available both in print and online. Please click here to request a PDF copy of the report. The executive summary can be accessed here.



Research Oversight and Content



      The research project was conducted by several leading scholars (click here for background) and included two principle elements:

               *Arizona Energy Supply and Demand (Current and historical use)
               *Data Analysis and Energy Use Projections

Arizona Energy Supply and Demand



       The Supply and Demand segment of the study included an in-depth analysis of Arizona’s current demand and energy sources. This research will include the following:

              1. An historical look at electricity demand. Please note that "demand" in this case is
                  "consumption," which is slightly different.
              2. Electricity supply for the state. This included all supply, including what is exported,
                   since Arizona is a net exporter of electricity.
              3. Electricity capacity for the state
              4. Projected electricity supply, including plants under construction

Data Analysis and Energy Use Projections



          The project included an electricity supply and demand forecasting model for Arizona that can be used to address a number of important issues facing policy makers and planners in the future. The modeling approach involves the determination of electricity consumption by sector; electricity rates given assumptions on primary fuel prices (oil, natural gas, and coal); electricity generation capacity and conversion efficiencies; inflation; and economic growth.



          Electricity demands for residential, commercial, and industrial customers determine electric power generation and net exports, which then drives the demand for fuels in power generation. The composition of fuel consumption by electric utilities and the average cost of electricity generation are determined by assumptions on available generation capacity, operating rates, and efficiency rates for operating units.



         End-use electricity prices are determined by adding transmission and distribution charges to generation costs. The feedback of final electricity consumption to the demand for fuels to generate power and to end-use electricity prices allows an integrated evaluation of conservation programs and fuel choice in power generation.